And So It Goes

                               Not much has changed, eh?

"You may lose troops, but never lose a minute" Napoleon famously observed.

I've been thinking about Russia's glacial pace in the so-called "SMO" in Ukraine. A war Russia could, and should, have won within a month. Instead they've resorted to WWI tactics: artillery duels, no man's land, trenches, barbed wire, dugouts and a front that's scarcely moved over the last six months, except to Ukraine's advantage. The Brits and Germans of 1915 fought much more aggressively than today's Russians.

So, in spite of every military maxim, Mr. Putin has decided that time in war is really not of the essence. It's possible that in this one case it's not, we're dealing with Russia after all, but....

Online commenters have for months been confidently predicting that Russia will finally begin it's "overwhelming assault... once the ground has frozen". Well, as of today the ground IS frozen in Ukraine - so where's the overwhelming assault?

Adding further mystery to this already very strange war, Putin has just appointed a ground troops commander who's been roundly denounced as incompetent. By Russians!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-putins-appointment-of-inferior-general-means-for-ukraine-war/ar-AA16bnx9

Me? I don't think there is going to be any overwhelming assault. Not this winter and probably not this year, if ever. The war will simply grind on WWI style, as it has from the beginning, before finally petering out and some sort of agreement being signed; while the news agencies of the world quietly move on to other matters.

Why do I think that? Because I've become convinced over the past ten and a half months that Putin isn't playing to win, he's playing *not to lose*.

Playing not to lose is a very different thing from playing to win. You'll often see it in professional sports, especially during big games like the Super Bowl; which is usually the most boring game of the year. The respective coaches, even the most daring, go into a kind of Super Bowl trance: a defensive, bunker mentality; and a game plan that avoids risk and focuses on keeping the other team on their own side of the field while waiting for lucky breaks that can be exploited for better field position.

If my view is correct (and yes, I was wrong before for thinking Russia would make short work of Ukraine) then we shouldn't hold our breath expecting to see Russia's "overwhelming assault" anytime soon. For reasons of his own Vladimir Putin is playing not to lose. Maybe Russia really is as weak and incompetent as Western pundits claim. Maybe he's working on deals behind the scenes. Perhaps he's been bought off by the globalists. Maybe he's looking to strengthen his already formidable power. Perhaps he's just a deeply flawed man. Maybe all of the above. He is a politician after all.

Whatever Putin's mindset, his procrastination in Ukraine is in keeping with his past behavior in places like Libya, Maidan and post-Maidan. For my part I question the need for the invasion of Ukraine. Russia has a stick much bigger than its military. Bigger even than its nuclear arsenal: it has immense oil and gas fields. It also provides much of Europe's food.

When NATO began screwing with him why not just turn off some of the valves to Europe instead of going GI Joe? Now he's gotten his country into a bit of a fix. A very expensive fix. And yet, even after NATO's part in the conflict was unmistakeable, Putin was was still speaking of "Our Western partners." ???

Not to forget the hundred thousand plus dead on both sides. People who this time last year were walking around town, clowning it up with their friends, with no inkling of their pending cancellation. It wasn't necessary.

Then there are the ongoing attacks by Ukrainian forces against the two breakaway republics, Donetsk and Lughansk, which after ten and a half months of war are STILL being shelled by Ukrainian artillery; with weapons and troops being shuttled into Eastern Ukraine across dozens of big fat bridges spanning the Dnieper river.

Big fat bridges that to this day remain blissfully untroubled by Russian military action. But who am I to say? Draw your own conclusions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYbiW2PnLlM


Citizenfitz